NFL 2010 Experts Playoff Predictions: They All Stink

This is my favorite article of the year to write. Every year, dozens of NFL experts make their "well informed" season predictions on highly visible websites. These are the people who know more about the league than us, the simple readers. That is why writing that most of nfl throwback jerseys
the people predicting the playoff teams have no clue about the basics of the NFL is so much fun.
There are a few things about the NFL that are well-known before the season begins. The Lions usually stink. The Steelers are usually good. Peyton Manning is great in the regular season. Besides that, almost any other team can take a fall or rise up.
On average, six new teams have made the playoffs in each of the last 14 seasons. The average of the last 10 years is 6.3 and the last five years is 6.6. Based on this well-established trend, there is little reason to believe that five, six or even seven teams that missed the playoffs last year will make it this season. Unless you are a sports writer. They must have some secret intel no one else has.
Two theories of why the experts make such mediocre picks: One, they fear taking too many different teams, because so many people go back in January and give them guff. Two, they are incredibly lazy and spend about 20 seconds on their picks, without taking any history or logic into account. It's not like my knowledge about six new playoff teams is classified.
Let's start with CNNSI. They had an article with nine experts making their season picks. Dominic Bonvissuto was the only guy of the nine who picked five new teams. Six of the other writers picked four new teams.
The last time only four new playoff teams made the playoffs was 1995. Andrew Perloff and Jerome Bettis picked three new teams to make the playoffs.
The last time that happened was 1989. These expert predictions are meaningless if they aren't even trying to get all 12 teams correct. Wow, Peter King could win the CNNSI office pool with seven correct teams, and win a latte in the process. He surely will not win the latte with 11 or 12 correct.
USAToday had eight of their experts make season predictions. Once again, none of them picked at least six new teams.
Tom Pedulla was the only one to pick five new teams. Only two of the other writers picked four new teams, meaning that a majority of the experts at USAToday stink. Three of their experts picked three new teams, which leaves Gary Mihoces and Scott Zucker as completely unaware about the NFL.
The last time only two new teams made the playoffs was 1984. Only twice since the merger have only two new teams made the playoffs, and one was in a season with eight playoff teams, and one with 10 playoff teams.
Zucker morphs into full-fledged cluelessness when you see that he picked the entire AFC playoff picture to be exactly the same as last year. The only time that has ever happened since 1970 was with the AFC in 1984.
Jim Corbett also picked the same scenario for the AFC; darts have as much shot of Minnesota Vikings jersey
being accurate at this point. Picking two new teams is like playing the Pick Six lottery, taking out the pencil, and filling out four numbers on the card.

Now onto ESPN, the worldwide leader in sports. ESPN had 16 of their experts make their picks, and none of them picked the average. Three of the 16 picked five new teams (which has only happened twice in the last 11 years, but at least it happens). Five of the other experts picked four new teams, meaning that half of the ESPN NFL knowledge base doesn't understand the simplest NFL trends.
ESPN amazingly had five people pick only two new playoff teams. KC Joyner will be exempt from this next rant since four others trumped his mediocrity.
Football experts Bill Williamson, James Walker, Tim Graham and John Clayton somehow think the AFC will be exactly the same. A quarter of their staff made completely idiotic picks.
Walker, Graham and Clayton get even more attention given that last year (some of us don't forget), Clayton and Graham also picked two new teams, and Walker picked one.
How are they writing about football for a living? They obviously either don't care or have so little knowledge about the NFL that it is embarrassing. Here's a thought: one of them should go back and review their bad predictions from the 2009 season and change it up a bit.
I know I picked the Browns last year, and it was a horrible pick (Although they do have the longest winning streak in the NFL). At least I tried to get all 12 correct. I'm not trying to get a maximum of eight correct.
Walker, Graham and Clayton have the same concept of how the NFL season will play out than an untrained monkey has.
All of them picked the Steelers to win the Super Bowl last year. Unless the Super Bowl was in an Atlanta bathroom, I recall Pittsburgh not making the playoffs at all. This year, all of them picked the Colts to win the Super Bowl. I'm feeling more confident about my pick of the Colts not making the playoffs now. If groupthink says the Colts, and that group is filled with idiots, run away from Indy.
In total, 31 NFL experts made picks, for 3 major media outlets, and none of Dallas Cowboys jersey
them picked the average turnover of playoff teams in a season. When six or seven new teams make the playoffs this year, I guarantee the same 31 experts will do exactly the same thing next year. Hopefully this article will definitively prove the statement below.
"NFL Experts are experts because we are told they are."